Whine & Cheese

Obamania Week Continues

No worries, I will eventually shut up about the Obama, the election, politics.  I sense I am over the hump and things are slowly going to return back to normal here and I'll be devoting full posts to being happy over La Lucci finally getting the boot on Dancing With The Stars... but still got a bit left in the tank, so bear with me for a bit more!

First, thanks for communications (emails, comments, messages) about the whole Prop 102 and marriage amendment thing.  I was a bit taken aback by how down I was yesterday given that I fully expected to be giddily bouncing off the walls over an Obama victory.  Over the course of the day, I see I was not alone in feeling that way.  "Gay" was not synonymous with "happy" yesterday that was for sure!   I think it was the cumulative effect of all these propositions that had me in such a funk.  While I fully expected and was prepared for our AZ proposition to pass, the Prop 8 result honestly threw me.  I was well aware it was a very tight race, but I certainly got a lesson about the California political scene.  Here I was thinking CA was a pure bastion of liberalism, but looking at the Prop 8 Yes/No county map show that the Golden State is not that different from our country - "blue" on the coasts and major population center and more "red" inland and covering a lot more land mass.

Back here in AZ, there is some concern that we will lose our Democratic governor Janet Napolitano to the Obama administration... which would thus ascend our Republican (and also female!) Secretary of State to the top office.  Napolitano was an early supporter of Obama and now is part of the transition team and the buzz is that she would be considered for Attorney General or head of Homeland Security.  But rumors also have her not seeking re-election in two years to instead run for McCain's Senate seat.  So who knows!

Okay, onto more important things!

Just so you think I am not capable of critical thinking when it comes to the Obamas, put me in the NOT a fan camp re: Michelle Obama's victory speech/Grant Park dress.  I have been a fan of her no-nonsense, sensible, un-pretentious fashion/style ... and while the above dress is all that... she just lost me on the whole "what the heck is going on with the black fabric criss-crossing the front of it?!?" thingy. 

Actually I was thrilled to see what the First Lady-Elect wore to the polls on election day...

It seemed to be a very much throw on some clothes, pull the hair back, maybe put on a bit of make-up, get the kids in the car an head to the polls... pretty refreshing, and it's not like she didn't think cameras were going to be there... and a bit of contrast compared to Cindy McCain's Aspen ski-bunny get-up (which actually is pretty subdued/tame as well).

Next up, we know the Obamas are going to be getting a puppy when or before they head to the White House.  May I recommend a purely American breed of dog... the Boston Terrier: 

Here is the latest picture of our own Barocky Obama.  I think this is probably the only dog/breed that could out-cute little Sasha Obama.

But rumor has it the Obamas are going to ... in their typical elitist, "we're oh so perfect" way... going to get a rescue dog.  Ugh.

Figures... next thing we'll know they'll be announcing plans to replace all the lightbulbs in the White House with compact flourescent ones... and recycle wine bottles used at state dinners!

The Times They Are A-Changin' (And Not)

The cover of my old "hometown" paper (even though I am from NJ, I grew up with the NY Daily News as our daily newspaper):

While I was pretty optimistic about the outcome of the election, it was still very surprising and moving when the moment happened.  Truthfully, I never thought something like this would happen in my lifetime... first, voting for a viable woman candidate for the Presidency in the primaries, then voting for the bi-racial/African American man that will become the 44th President of the United States.

I just hope that we are truly headed down the path of a government who gets things done responsibly and with less divisiveness...though I am not holding my breath... and I already sense the world's view of our country has changed overnight (my little personal window of foreign reaction saw folks really pulling/hoping for Obama - and I couldn't imagine the reverse, with Americans being that invested in a foreign election).

But, as expected, the night and this morning definitely ha been bittersweet... with all 4 anti-gay (or pro-"family") propositions passing... marriage amendments here is AZ, in FL (where the prop needed, and received, over 60% of the vote), and while it hasn't been officially called, it looks like it will be very tough haul for CA's Prop 8 to be defeated... and I have to admit, that I was aware of Arkansas now voter-approved ban on "unmarried sexual partners" from adopting children or serving as foster parents.

So on a night where we witnessed just how far our country has come, it was personally very discouraging to feel one's own civil rights being pushed back taken several painful steps.  I remember a couple of years back when AZ defeated the first stab at this "sanctity of marriage" crap or when states started making strides towards marriage equality, that just maybe this would be something that would be realized in my lifetime. 

Now I am not so sure...

So if two perfect strangers (as long as they are a man and woman), decide they want to get married they can with nary a question (and certainly not a public vote)... and this couple could have more legal rights re: other than I have in my 14+ year relationship... or other folks can get married over and over again (and we all know some), hoping the current one is the last one.  But as long as folks seemingly can't discern the difference between the legal "piece of paper" aspect and a religious ceremony... with the latter meaning nothing without the former... it's going to be a struggle for our cause.

I think it will happen... someday.  But I am not so sure I will be blessed (or cursed?!) with the lifespan of Ann Nixon Cooper, the 106 year old that Obama so effectively highlighted in last nights victory speech, someone who has seen and experienced so many unimaginable events and changes in our country.  And again, even in such a moment of discouragement, I was inspired by Obama's words:

"That while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can"

Yes I Did

It seems silly to say much of anything else other than this today...

Took us about an hour at our polling place from start to finish, but that was mostly due to the initial back-up when the polls opened at 6 a.m.  But all went smoothly for us (tho 3 people ahead of us all had to do provisional ballots for one reason or another) and now we wait until tonight.  I plan on turning off most of any news/political stuff/talking heads until the polls start closing back East and even head out on some errands a bit later just to get my mind off it.   Todd mentioned yesterday he felt like an expectant parent -- and there definitely is that odd mix of excitement, nervousness, hope, fear, relief and anticipation.

One Day More

I stumbled onto this You Tube video back in September, but I thought it was worth re-sharing since it is now alas "One Day More" until the election... and it seems silly to try to blog about anything else other than politics and the election for the next few days...  so I share, once again, Les Misbarack!

And since you know how much I love throwing my hat into the prediction ring... and while I am a tad more confident about my Dancing With The Stars finalists picks... here is my guess at the final electoral college map.

I'll admit to pretty much trusting the polls (and a lot of electoral college history) and really just taking my own stab at the toss-up states... and I like to think I am being a tad conservative (about a liberal, ha!) as I think there might/hopefully be a bit more blue on the map. 

If you are as equally nerdy inclined, I welcome your final EC tally predictions in the comments!

I went to this RealClearPolitics map and just did some clickin' and flippin' to get my numbers.

Election Fatigue

I have to admit that I am ready to vote and get the election over with already.  I had a good laugh at The Daily Show the other night when relatively new "correspondent" Wyatt Cenac likened it to having a drug-induced erection for 3 hours and 58 minutes and having to wait to the 4 hour mark to "contact your doctor" moment.

Watched the Oba-mercial last night and have to say I was pretty moved by it... which means it was "mission accomplished" (well at least to "the base").   I will admit I was slow to coming around to Obama, but I do find him to be very inspiring and the "transformative" political figure that I think is exactly what this country needs right now. 

While I remember being stoked about Clinton ("Don't Stop (Thinkin' About Tomorrow)" and all that good stuff)... things are different this time around... I was 25 years old when Clinton was sworn-in and now a tad north of 40... the world is certainly a different place... and I am definitely more in tune with politics these days (thanks to - or blame! - the Internet for that)... so I was saying to Todd last night after the Oba-mercial that this is what people must have felt about JFK... and here, I will also be Debbie Downer and add that I fear Obama may meet the same fate/end... but alas Todd reminded me he has to become President first...

... which I think he will do.  Sure I am probably setting myself up for another election night where my hopes and dreams are pulverized to bits in thinking the person I voted for was going to win. 

Funny enough, when this election cycle began (which seems way back to when I was 25 years old!) I thought it wouldn't be the 'end of the world' if McCain won.  But I was talking about the "old" McCain and I can not respect much of what he has done/turned into over the course of this campaign.  And heck, I might have still felt the same if he had a running mate other than Palin - which again is something I think the "old" McCain would not have done.  Again, I am not saying I would be "happy" or even remotely have the thought of "crossing party lines" - but again it wouldn't be the "end of the world" (and okay, even if it does happen, it won't be either)

While I know this is coming from left-leaning, liberal biased comedy shows, my mouth has hit the floor hearing what people are saying at McCain or Palin rallies (again, I know this isn't everybody!)... but it was scary how sincere people were in thinking if Obama wins that there will be a terrorist or Muslim in the White House (with some thinking those two are synonymous)... one woman feared that she would have to wear a burka... "he will put a turban on and we will all be shot"... "I am scared to death of him"... "there will be no America left"... "he's not living in a realistic world with his Islamic view."  The fact that these thoughts are honestly out there is scary to me and makes me fear for Obama.  Again, I am not asking for people to be happy or non-skeptical or wary... but I wish there was more "it won't be the end of the world" if Obama is elected.

Switching gears, I suspect that election night will end with mixed feelings... again, while I am fairly confident I will be voting for the ultimate winner (well, not necessarily thanks to electoral votes from my state) in this race, I (once again!) have little confidence that our state will reject the "define marriage" constitutional amendment.  I have to admit that I have been a bit jealous over all the attention/money/etc that California's Prop 8 has been getting... but, at the end of the day, I do realize that if California (of all states!) loses this battle... the negative ramifications/impact to our cause will be enormous.  While even if the improbable happens here in AZ and Prop 102 is rejected, nothing will change as gay marriage is still against state law... but there is a lot more to lose in CA.  Again, good thoughts and hopes to our neighbor to the west!

A few years back, when the gay marriage debate was really raging (not that isn't now... obviously!)... I discovered this quote from Thomas Jefferson (actually a version of it on the walls of the Jefferson Memorial in Washington DC) and I think it is worth repeating:

"I am certainly not an advocate for frequent and untried changes in laws and constitutions. I think moderate imperfections had better be borne with; because, when once known, we accommodate ourselves to them, and find practical means of correcting their ill effects.

But I know also, that laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times.

We might as well require a man to wear still the same coat which fitted him when a boy, as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors."

Again, while I am ready for this all to be over with... let me take a moment to raise a glass... in a hopeful, non-cynical, naive (and rare, for me!) way... to the "progress of the human mind!"

Wrong Side of History

I was thrilled to see this political cartoon from Steve Benson in today's The Arizona Republic.

It echoes pretty much exactly what I said in one of my posts from last week... and while I remain pessimistic that Prop 102 will be defeated... despite defeating a similar prop two years ago, Arizona does not have a great track record on this kind of stuff... as it was one of the last states to observe Martin Luther King Day... a voter rejection of the holiday led the NFL to pulling Super Bowl XXVII out of the Arizona... the MLK holiday prop returned to the ballot two years later and was approved by voters (with Super Bowl XXX awarded to the state shortly thereafter).

So we shall see, if this proposition does pass my only hope is that I will live to see the day that this is similarly overturned when the "wrong side of history" pressure mounts... and I wish my friends in California and Florida that their electorate will see the light as well next week!  

Marriage

Ok, I have to admit one of the nice thing about having the "Senator from Arizona" running for President is that we have not been run over by advertising for that particular race ... though I have to say I have been a bit surprised how many TV ads I have seen from Obama... again, not a whole lot... and signs that litter pretty much every corner in town are also fairly devoid of any mention of either Presidential candidate.

But that's not to say, we aren't getting our fair share of political ads... there are plenty of folks running for Congress and other elected offices that are apparently more "in play" in our state... and, of course, there are those darn propositions. 

And one in particular, I have found to be particularly annoying and personal.  A "Yes" vote on Prop 102 would change the Arizona constitution that marriage would be valid and recognized as only occurring between a man and a woman.  This beyond the fact that there is already a state law that says as much (and reminding the public of the fact in wording on this prop was squashed by the Republican Secretary of State)... and that two years ago a very similar proposition was rejected by voters... but even I can not be naive enough to think that was largely thanks to it also including heterosexual domestic partnerships.

This time without it affecting straight folk, there seems to be little momentum or support to oppose it.  Having the TV on as background noise for most of the day, I would say TV ads for "yes" outnumber the "no" by easily a 25 to 1 margin (and I might be generous even there) and likewise the signs in support - "Yes on Marriage" (well, maybe to you!!) - are everywhere. 

There has been some notable support against it ... Phil Gordon, the mayor of Phoenix (and a Democrat) is against it.  I was pleasantly surprised that our hometown paper, The Arizona Republic, came out against it (though before I couldn't stomach it anymore, apparently some conservatives in the State, think the paper is very liberal... that's news to me)... and I even saw an interview with the irrepressible Charles Barkley who said that if gay people want to get married "God bless you" and whoever opposes it are "idiots" (again, just quoting Chuck).

But still I think it will pass... and pass easily... and I wouldn't be surprised if it is the only "Yes" on the crappiest collection of propositions that I have seen on a ballot in some time.   Despite its islands of "blue," Arizona is still a pretty conservative state... but heck if California is in a battle with their Prop 8, you can probably see why I am so discouraged about this. 

And it was really a kick in the stomach, to see one of neighbors have a  "Yes" sign stuck in their front yard... which I imagine is against HOA regulations.  I know that I am largely "preaching to the choir" here, so I won't get on my soapbox... but I just want to say to those folks voting "yes" on this proposition that you are on the wrong side of history. 

While I certainly have reason to take this personally, this is simply and purely a civil rights issue - and while I am well aware that this issue has serious religious baggage, the rights that are bestowed come when one pays he government for that piece of paper.  So I would say to my neighbor that the sign in their yard is the equivalent of saying Asians can't marry each other or Jews can't marry each other or (god forbid) Asians can't marry Jews.  I know detractors will go on to say it's all about who has what body part(s)... but I will go on the record that this is something I didn't "chose" to be and add that in talking with my married friends that the relationship that I have been in for 13+ years is not terribly different from theirs at the end of the day.

Taxes Schmaxes

I have to admit my eyes start to glaze over whenever the topic of taxes gets brought up. 

While no one is happy about taxes, it is honestly something I don't ever really think about all that much....

Now, I'll just throw it out there that a big part of my 'whatever' about taxes is that I do not have any real estate or children -- which I think are two of the biggest factors when it comes to taxes -- either paying out or getting a deduction.

But when I was deeply in debt and making little/no income about a decade ago, I didn't think much about taxes... now that I am relatively financially comfortable, I don't think much about taxes.   The Bush tax cuts was not something that I ever really noticed (either personally or w/ my small business), the "incentive" check I received whenever was nice but didn't provide me any relief beyond an iTouch that I could have afforded anyhow (and I doubt anyone is major or even minor financial trouble was that "relieved" either)... and to be non-partisan here, even when I headed over to the Obama tax calculator and threw in a couple of scenarios (my income tends to go up and down from year to year)... my "middle class" tax cut of $250 to $500 won't make much a difference either.

Ok, maybe I do think about taxes occasionally....I'll look at my W-4 at the end of year and go "whoa, that's a lot of cash"... or when I purchase a biggish ticket item, I'll look at the sales tax and go "whoa, look at that"... or when I stay at hotel, which tends to be a more highly taxed thing, I'll go "hmmm, that's a lot"... but at the end of the day, it's paid and I go on with my life... and I highly doubt that even all these things were say 20% less, which seems as if it would be a dramatic decrease, would make a whole lot of difference at the end of day.

Now granted, there may be some anger/frustration in how my tax dollars are being used... but to maintain my own mental well-being, I try not to think about that too much either.

And with the now (in)famous Joe the Plumber from last night's debate, I wonder if he knows what he is talking about... is this business making in $250,000 revenue or profit?   While my business partner (and founder) of our business deals with the financial aspect of our business (along with an accountant), that is two different things and there are certainly ways around it.... and while, I may be wrong here, I read something this morning that under the proposed Obama plan Joe's tax increase would be $900 - which again, I can't imagine would really matter.   But Joe also said he made up his mind about which candidate he would be voting for awhile back - and I suspect it is McCain, though I am found his reasoning of not wanting "socialism" as a deciding factor to be a tad curious as the current administration has pretty much "socialized" the financial sector in the past several weeks.   

So am I alone here... or have you ever been positively or negatively affected by taxes in your life?

Unhatched Chickens Counted

Well, for the first time ever on the RealClearPolitics electoral college map - including toss-up states - Obama has passed he 270 electoral votes for the White House... and I even caught this story earlier this morning... Dem strategists see landslide in the making... which RCP's "no toss-up" map also suggests with Obama currently at 364 vs. 174 - which isn't of historic proportions, but pretty sizable...

That all said, I still am uncertain/skeptical... as I tried to communicate in my last electoral college post... but at least this particular view takes out the states from my "reporters on the ground" in Colorado (hi Scot) and Ohio (hi Joanna)...

Maverick or not, standing up to his party or not... it just doesn't seem as if McCain can sufficiently separate himself from Bush and the Republican party... and given the economic crisis, I think people are just looking to go in the opposite direction.  I try to give both sides a fair shake ... and give credit where credit is due... but in the last debate, I think Obama came across very calm, collected and confident (or as the pundits might say, "presidential")... whereas McCain came across a bit stodgy and grumpy... plus the 'walking around' style of that pseudo-ish town hall certainly provided a dramatic physical contrast between the candidates... again, I can not possibly fault the reasons why this is so for McCain, but it was something that was noticeable.

Whatever happens, the challenges the next President will face will be astronomical... and being a bit of Debbie Downer, if that is Obama... and he isn't able to turn things around sufficiently in the next 4 years, particulary with what is anticipated to be a Democrat run Congress, I fear the Dems will have a very tough time beyond 2012... but I guess, I should go back to the title of my post and keep those particular unhatched chicks uncounted.

Ready To Rumble

Here's the latest "no toss up" electoral college map from RealClearPolitics.

Looking good, but again I fear it is giving me false hope.   According to their multi-poll state-by-state predictions, after McCain "flipped" 5 consecutive states... Obama has now "flipped" 6 consecutive states... dating all the way back to August 24th - so going all the way back when the demise of the US economy was only a twinkle in someone's eye (or not!).

In order, those 6 Obama add-ons are CO, VA, NC, NV, OH, and FL ... and again, truthfully I find it hard to believe... but again, in this "no toss-up" scenario I am guessing these states (and many more) are within that always dreaded "margin of error."   But even, Bill Clinton is lately asserting that the race isn't even close... but again I always fall back to the adage that the Democrats have a uncanny knack of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

So tonight is the big VP debate, and it makes me giggle that so many folks seem to be so excited about it.  Like it or not, politics and particularly the presidential race has become the ultimate reality show... and tonight seems to be a prime example of that with a lot of folks (I'm guilty) wishing/hoping for some gaffe or screw-up.  What's better on American Idol than someone messing up the lyrics or someone taking a tumble on the dance floor on Dancing With The Stars... may seem petty, but "we" want a water-cooler moment ... that's what made the  first debate between Obama and McCain so boring, it's no fun when everyone is just "good."

But given the two principals tonight, it's hard to believe that something won't happen.  Biden has certainly been prone to "foot meet mouth" moments as well as babbling on (after all he is a Democrat)... and having to walk the gender tightrope... and well, what hasn't already been said about Palin.   While I certainly didn't like her material or tone at the RNC, I certainly admit it was effective... but since then her biggest problems seem to be sounding too over-prepared / coached or not being able to think on her feet... which would seem to be two serious problems going into a debate.   We've heard what a good debater she is/was, but there is exponentially more material that needs to be covered on a national scale... and plus, expectations have been set so low for her, that simply an "even" performance will likely be considered a win/success.

Should be interesting!