Well, for the first time ever on the RealClearPolitics electoral college map - including toss-up states - Obama has passed he 270 electoral votes for the White House... and I even caught this story earlier this morning... Dem strategists see landslide in the making... which RCP's "no toss-up" map also suggests with Obama currently at 364 vs. 174 - which isn't of historic proportions, but pretty sizable...
That all said, I still am uncertain/skeptical... as I tried to communicate in my last electoral college post... but at least this particular view takes out the states from my "reporters on the ground" in Colorado (hi Scot) and Ohio (hi Joanna)...
Maverick or not, standing up to his party or not... it just doesn't seem as if McCain can sufficiently separate himself from Bush and the Republican party... and given the economic crisis, I think people are just looking to go in the opposite direction. I try to give both sides a fair shake ... and give credit where credit is due... but in the last debate, I think Obama came across very calm, collected and confident (or as the pundits might say, "presidential")... whereas McCain came across a bit stodgy and grumpy... plus the 'walking around' style of that pseudo-ish town hall certainly provided a dramatic physical contrast between the candidates... again, I can not possibly fault the reasons why this is so for McCain, but it was something that was noticeable.
Whatever happens, the challenges the next President will face will be astronomical... and being a bit of Debbie Downer, if that is Obama... and he isn't able to turn things around sufficiently in the next 4 years, particulary with what is anticipated to be a Democrat run Congress, I fear the Dems will have a very tough time beyond 2012... but I guess, I should go back to the title of my post and keep those particular unhatched chicks uncounted.
Crossing my fingers right there with you.
One of the supposedly most accurate political prediction sites is one called FiveThirtyEight: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Apparently they took a highly successful algorithm used to predict baseball game outcomes and applied it to the polls. Newsweek did a story about the uncanny accuracy of the site here: http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/09/making-his-pitches.aspx
Anyway, as of the time of this comment, they are projecting an outcome of Obama- 347.6, McCain- 190.4. I'm not sure why the decimals, but you get the idea.
Posted by: Scott K | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 04:35 PM
That creepy old ghost and mrs. blur keep comming back to our beautiful state and dumping their shit all over the place. (I'll bet no one under 40 gets that reference!) I've got my mail-in ballot sitting right here in front of me, yet I just can't bring myself to fill it out. I'll get to it this weekend. We've got soooooo many things to vote on this time! Our little information booklet is 132 pages this election!!! 54 ballot measures for our consideration. That one and the other one are still running neck and saggy old turkey neck here in the hate state. Remember, we are also ground zero for focus on ze family and new life(sucking) church. Cocksuckers abound - and not in a good way.
Posted by: Scot | Thursday, October 09, 2008 at 11:59 PM