DWTS7: Predictions

It's tradition here at W&C that after just one performance, I try to predict who will make the Final 3 on Dancing With The Stars.  My track record is pretty good -- typically just having one miss -- but I have to say after last night I am having a real tough time figuring that out... maybe it's because I am still comatose after watching 13 performances last night!   Oy, please no more "biggest cast ever" again please!

I will attempt to work it out here... dancing ability is just one factor in determining who will get far... I dare say, entertainment and charisma, the uber-important fanbase, and even the pro (who arguably are now more famous than some of the "stars") are much more important criteria. 

Okay, here's how I see things shaking out for each couple:

Lance Bass/Lacey Schwimmer
Pros: Dancing ability, fanbase (former n'Sync fans + "family"), past ex-boy-band success on DWTS
Cons: Already considered a "dancer," first-time/unknown pro (and far edgier than other pros)
Forecast:  Should go far

Toni Braxton/Alec Mazo
Pros:  Dancing ability, name recognition, performer
Cons:  Health condition, still have a fanbase?
Forecast:  At least middle of the pack

Brooke Burke/Derek Hough
Pros:  Dancing ability (surprisingly good debut)
Cons:  Fanbase, models never go far
Forecast:  Should go far, but probably won't

Rocco Dispirito/Karina Smirnoff
Pros:  Handsome
Cons:  Fanbase, dancing ability
Forecast:  Early-ish exit

Maurice Greene/Cheryl Burke
Pros:  Experienced partner, past athlete success on DWTS
Cons:  Fanbase, likely to be overshadowed by fellow jocks May & Sapp
Forecast:  Early-ish exit

Kim Kardashian/Mark Ballas
Pros:  Experienced partner, first dance effort better than expected
Cons:  Fanbase, disdain for 'pseudo' celebrity status
Forecast:  Middle of the pack if dancing is up to snuff

Cloris Leachman/Corky Ballas
Pros:  Highly entertaining
Cons:  Everything else
Forecast:  Longer than she should (not complaining!), so maybe to the middle

Cody Linley/Julianne Hough
Pros:  'Hannah Montana' fanbase, experienced & popular partner
Cons:  Youth (for the 'older' TV viewer)
Forecast:  Pretty far thanks to fans and Julianne

Susan Lucci/Tony Dovolani
Pros:  Huge fanbase, soap stars go far on DWTS
Cons:  Age, lack of dancing ability
Forecast:  Erika Kane is going to be around for awhile

Misty May-Treanor/Maks Chmerkovskiy
Pros:  Athlete, popular and returning pro partner
Cons:  Question how big of a fanbase
Forecast:  Pretty far - based on discipline and Maks

Ted McGinley/Inna Brayer
Pros:  Classic-ly handsome
Cons:  Lack of fanbase, new/unknown pro partner, likely will have trouble w/ Latin dances
Forecast:  Early exit

Jeffrey Ross/Edyta Sliwinska
Pros:  Entertaining, experienced/popular partner
Cons:  Can't dance
Forecast:  Might survive tonite, but likely not much longer

Warren Sapp/Kym Johnson
Pros:  Charisma, NFL-ers do good on DWTS
Cons:  Size
Forecast:  Should keep the NFL/DTWS success story going

So let's see... that leaves us with...

My gut tells me Lance, Misty, and Warren...

But usually someone wacky slips in... so it may be Lucci, but if the daytime audience didn't carry hunky Cameron Mathison into the finals not sure they're gonna do it here... and likewise, I don't know the scope of 'Hannah Montana' voting bloc... they 'High School Musical' crowd took Monique Coleman pretty far, but she came across with more personality and likability than Cody did (at least on this first night).

Comments

[Jeff]

Yay, I've been waiting since last night to dish about DWTS. Lance was clearly one of the best; there may have been some rough patches, but nothing compared to some of the others. You're right about him being already thought of as a "dancer"; reminds me of how I thought Sabrina was amazing a couple of seasons ago, but she just didn't make it to the end. Warren was surprisingly good.

Mark Ballas's reaction to Bruno talking about Kim needing to make herself more open and available was hilarious. I need to get a screencap of that.

Yes, Cloris needs to stay on if just for her antics!