Oscar Nominations (And Winners!)

Ok, I wasn't planning on doing a post on the Academy Award nominations this morning, since I really have not seen many of the films (for the record: Brokeback, Walk The Line, Munich)...

But heck, the performance in the film (or the film itself) has little to do with why someone (something) wins.  So here are this year's nominees and who I think will win:

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
Despite being a bit concerned about Crash winning at this weekend's SAG awards, I still think Brokeback will take home the biggie.  Was kind of surprised to see Munich here, but what's the Oscars without a Spielberg film?  I am guessing it probably nudged out Walk The Line.

Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
This one is a runaway for Hoffman.

Actress
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
A two-horse race between Huffman and Witherspoon... before this weekend, I thought Huffman had a fairly decent lead, until Witherspoon took home the SAG... still too close to call, but I think Huffman is showing signs of momentum loss.

Supporting Actor
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt, "A History of Violence"
Nice to see Gyllenhaal get a nod since he has largely be ignored during the award season (perhaps confusion about where to put him... is this really a supporting character?)... who would have ever thunk we'd see Academy Award nominee Matt Dillion?  But this one, I think will go to Giamatti... with Clooney being the only other nominee with a chance.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
No real thoughts on this one... but my gut (and the name I have seen most) in this category goes to Weisz.

Director
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Bennett Miller, "Capote"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Even if there is a Crash upset in the Picture category, Lee appears pretty safe to take home the directing trophy.

Adapted Screenplay
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"
Dan Futterman, "Capote"
Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"
Josh Olson, "A History of Violence"
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich"
Again, a pretty safe call for the respected McMurtry and his writing partner Ossana.

Original Screenplay
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"
Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana"
Crash is gaining momentum... but I will still go with Clooney and Heslov as a way of honoring the film and allowing Clooney to win one of his three nominations.

A full list of the nominees can be found here.

Comments

[Gail]

Good summary and predictions. I've seen about as many of the contenders as you have, but all different. I don't expect him to win, but Matt Dillon is at least deserving of the nomination for his performance in Crash. I was also happy to see Jake Gyllenhall get some recognition. That's the only category where you may be wrong--or you may be right.