The first Grand Slam of the 2005 tennis season, The Australian Open, starts in a couple of hours. I always find this Slam to be the hardest to predict. While there has been a movement to extend tennis' off-season, it is still pretty short (just 6-7 weeks)... and with just two weeks of warm-up tournaments it is hard to determine which players are in or out of form.
ESPN Classic has been showing old Aussie Open matches today. This morning, I caught the 1988 women's final between a then 18-year old Steffi Graf vs. the 33-year old Chris Evert. Let's just say tennis, and especially women's tennis, has come a long way in those 15 years. Raquet technology is partially responsible, but the pace of the game and the athleticism of the players has picked up tremendously. Other things have also changed. 1988 was the first year of the new retractable roof in Melbourne... and rain actually forced them to close the roof during this women's final. The broadcasters seemed pretty impressed that it took only 25 minutes to close. In contrast, these days it takes about 5 minutes for the Bank One Ballpark roof to open/close during MLB Diamondback games here in Phoenix.
Also the prize money has changed a bit. In 1988, the women's champion (which was Graf) earned $110,000 -- a sizable chunk of the $700,000 total purse for the entire women's field that year. This year the women's champ will earn over $1 million.
But back to this year's Oz Open where the man to beat is clearly Roger Federer. The #1 player started off last year with a win Down Under and ended up having one of the best seasons ever for a male tennis player. It is hard to even think of a player who can challenge. #2 Andy Roddick has switched coaches, while #3 Lleyton Hewitt has worked on improving his upper body strength (as is clearly evident in the picture above) in hopes of challenging Federer.
So, uncharacteristically, it is the women's field which is the one up for grabs. Illness and injury has taken its toll on nearly all the top players. Justine Henin-Hardenne and Kim Clijsters, the Belgians who dominated the tour in 2003 have yet to return after missing most of last year, are still both off the Tour. Venus and Serena Williams have not played much tennis at all in the past couple of years due to constant injury, while top-seeded Lindsay Davenport is trying to get over a bout of brochitis entering the Open. This has allowed a gaggle of Russian women to start taking home the big titles -- three of the four Slams last year were won by Russians -- Myskina, Sharapova, and Kuznetsova.
So here are my predictions for the 2005 Australian Open:
Men
Semis: Federer vs. Safin, Hewitt vs. Roddick
Federer defeats Hewitt
Women
Semis: Davenport vs. Dementieva, Sharapova vs. Serena Williams
Sharapova defeats Davenport
Check back in two weeks to see if I was right!
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